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Gambling on Music – A Random Lesson in Promoting
Sometimes, as a promoter, you take a gamble on an act. This may come as a shock to people, but the concerts of your favourite artist, be they stadium fillers or toilet tour regulars, all have to undergo some kind of financial prediction before being booked by a venue or promoter. It’s not just book an act in to play a show and then see what happens; even the good people of the DIY world work out some basic figures – they need this much to cover their transport costs, the venue needs this much to cover their costs, means I have to sell this many tickets at this price to break even – is the most basic calculation to do. But, calculating the likely hood of ‘this many tickets’ being sold is, the ultimate crux of the matter, and music, by its definition as art, cannot match its whimsical nature to a set of balance sheets.
There are various quantifiable variables that you can include to reduce the risk on this gamble, which will enhance your ability to fine tune the prediction. Such as, past ticket sales data (with attention to regional areas and ideally geographical reports on ticket buyers), social network scaling (how many likes, plays, interactions, where from etc), the team around the artist and their past record of success, media reports from taste makers and journalists, other artists associations (inc tour supports, endorsements etc), and of course record sales data (if available). These kind of things can all help a promoter work out the potential sale size of a concert – but an accountant could do these things (and probably better). The major skill of a promoter is always the ability to hear the potential of the music (this is especially correct in relation to new music) in relation to the market. A commercial music ear if you will (not to be confused with personal music tastes of the promoter in many cases), that can see and hear the potential of the artist.
So, in conclusion Concert promoters are brilliant. Show us some love.